CivieBlog

This month's #LCBQ is: How do you address the "I want it now!" demand from stakeholders? There are some great responses that can be found by visiting the link above.

Corny 1986 line. :)

Content Needs

This is a very crude self-assessment, but I believe it makes an important point.

If you are reading this, you are a knowledge worker. Consider the content (knowledge, information, learning) you personally need to get your job done. Draw a circle in each quadrant based on the amount (percentage) of the content that you need that's:

• Slow changing vs. fast changing. Will the content remain roughly the same for two years? Or will it really be out of date in two years?
• Large audience vs. small audience. Is the content I need applicable to a relatively large audience or do I have fairly particular needs?

I did a crude version of this for myself and came up with the following:

Definitely the vast majority of the time, I'm needing information that is relatively fast moving and is specific to the particular situations I face. In fact, often the information does really exist. Actually most of us that are Concept Workers will find that we play in that upper right quadrant most of the time.

That said, there are some exceptions that I could think of. For example, I consume a fair bit of content that's around technology. There's a fair amount of it that has a pretty large applicable audience. Of course, most of it is pretty old news in two years time. There is some information around core technologies that will last longer. I also should point out that the information is more specialized all the time, meaning ever smaller audiences. So, that kind of information makes for Fast but Larger audiences.

And when you consider the trends for most concept workers (knowledge workers), we clearly are heading towards faster moving content aimed at smaller audiences.

Workplace Learning's Challenge

Now let's put on the hat of someone in workplace learning. What's our ideal kind of content?

Workplace Learning's ideal content: Slow changing and large audience

How big is that circle? How is that circle doing for most knowledge workers?

This isn't something new, it's just becoming more and more clear. I've discussed it in Disruptive Changes in Learning, Innovators' Dilemma in Learning/eLearning, Business of Learning, and Learning Performance Business Talent Focus.

The reality is that we need to find ways to insert ourselves into the faster moving content and be able to change the dynamics to reach smaller audiences. These relate to speed. One of the nice things about the responses to this month's LCBQ is that they relate directly to speed even though they were not necessarily aimed at the bigger picture above.

Responding to the Need for Speed

I like where Glenn Hansen started his answer:

1. Don’t assume that training is the answer.
2. Even if some kind of training is reasonable, don’t assume the stakeholder in question has identified the right solution.

And liked Glenn's point about what's required:

Work up your material to the point where it conveys the skills and knowledge needed and where it is professionally presented and fit for purpose. Don’t chase perfection, because it’s more likely your information will be out of date by the time you have it ready.

This is echoed quite a bit by the collection of Agile eLearning - 27 Great Articles that I pulled together previously.

In terms of specific suggestions there are some real nuggets in several of the responses.

Clive has some very good suggestions on speeding things up in The Big Question: How do you respond to the ‘I want it now’ demand?.

Open Sesame's response similarly has some good ideas for rapid solutions.

Jeff Goldman also has several suggestions for speeding the process or approach in his post: A Priest, A Rabbi and an Instructional Designer Are in a Bar and Identify a Training Need: A response to the #LCBQ." However, his punch-line struck me as defending slower processes:

Oh, the priest, rabbi and instructional designer identified a training need, collaborated on designing an effective learning program which was not implemented until it was damn well ready to be implemented.

It's fairly contrary to the rest of his more reasoned approach. And if the stakeholder hears slow moving training solutions as the response that won't be ready until it's "damn well ready." Well ... good luck with that.

I also feel a bit the same way about Tom Gram's response that included:

The best strategy is a preventative one.

He's correctly arguing that you should try to cut off some of the problem at the pass, but the reality is that you should get yourself ready to be fast, agile or however, you want to describe it.

So let me ask you ... do you feel the need? The need for speed?

Intervue.me is a new website I have been using recently. It's another website that is based around the use of webcams. The site enables users to create questionnaires and then get the recipients of the questionnaire to leave video recorded answers. The site is very easy to use.

Register the go to 'My Dashboard' and click on 'Create New' to start your first questionnaire.


First you decide on the levels of privacy you want for the questionnaire and whether you want people to be able to leave anonymous answers or add comments to the answers.


Next you click on 'Start adding questions'.
You can type in your question and give more explanation below the question if you think that makes it clearer. You can add as many questions as you want. You'll also need to click on 'Edit title' so that you can give your questionnaire a name.


Once you have added all your questions you can just click on 'Share' or 'Invite' to either get a URL for your questionnaire or to email it to specific people.

Then once people receive the questionnaire they just click on the questions and record their answers using the webcam in their laptop.

To see all the videos you can just go to 'My Dashboard' and click on the 'Videos' tab.

Here are some example questionnaires I have created. Feel free to leave an answer to any of the questions.

• Blended learning
• How digital is your classroom?
• Mobile devices in the classroom

How to use Intervue.me with students

• Create comprehension check questions to go with reading homework so that students also do some speaking for homework.
• Create opinion polls for students to answer.
• Make action research questionnaires
• Play the alibi game and get students to explain where they were and what they were doing at particular points in time.
• Ask students about childhood memories.

What I like about Intervue.me

• It's very quick and easy to create questionnaires
• It's a great way to provide speaking practice for students.
  
• You can add more detail and explanation to the questions.
• Students get to practice their digital communication skills.
• Students will be able to watch and listen to their replies and rerecord them so this will focus them on accuracy.
• It can be more communicative and engaging than writing down answers as students can also see the other answers that have been recorded.
• You can create long questionnaires or very simple single question ones.

What I'm not so sure about.

• It could take time to get students feeling comfortable in front of the camera, so you might need to help them a little and get them to think about lighting and getting the correct distance from the camera.
• Be careful about enabling anonymous replies or comments as this could be abused.
• Students need a laptop with a reasonable quality microphone.

I hope you find Intervue.me useful and that your students get plenty of speaking practice.

Related links:

• Create a Video Q&A Booth
• So Ask Me a Question
• Create a Video Dictation Activity
• 20 WebCam Activities for EFL ESL Students
• Teach Yourself to Teach with Tech
• Get your Students Listening and Interacting with Native Speakers

Best

Nik Peachey

The first couple of responses to this month's LCBQ Addressing I Want it Now #LCBQ have come in and Kasper Spiro's caught my eye: On demand: agile e-Learning development #LCBQ.  Like Kasper, I'm very familiar with Agile in software development.  I was not as familiar with it in terms of eLearning development.

So, I wanted to pull together some reading and resources around Agile eLearning, Agile ADDIE, etc.

I found some amazing resources using eLearning Learning and via search:

1. What Agile Means to Me- ID Reflections
2. ADDIE isn't Dead; it's just more Agile- Integrated Learnings
3. The Agile Elearning Design Manual - Of Project Spaces & Project Managers- The Learning Generalist
4. Agile instructional design- Jay Cross's Informal Learning
5. Agility and Autonomy- Learning and Working on the Web
6. Designing for Agile Learning- Big Dog, Little Dog
7. No time for design?- Making Change
8. Agile, Lego and Training: The common factors.- ID Reflections
9. Agile e-learning- Clive on Learning
10. The Agile Elearning Design Manual - Agile Re-explained- The Learning Generalist
11. I lost my agile virginity- Challenge to Learn
12. Tackling Wicked Problems Using an Iterative Approach- ID Reflections
13. Get Real: Mission Critical E-learning- Lars is Learning
14. The Agile Elearning Design Manual - Why Synchronous Learning makes so much sense today- The Learning Generalist
15. ADDIE isn't dead; how can it be?- Integrated Learnings
16. The Agile Elearning Design Manual: Problems with existing approaches- The Learning Generalist
17. The Agile Elearning Design Manual - Iterations huh?- The Learning Generalist
18. Agility through collaboration- Learning and Working on the Web
19. The Periodic Table of Agile Learning- Big Dog, Little Dog
20. Harold Jarche » Instructional Design Needs More Agility- Learning and Working on the Web
21. Orientation in Agile Learning Design- Big Dog, Little Dog
22. Towards an alternative e-learning- Onlignment
23. Agile Design: An Ethos for Creating Learning Platforms- Big Dog, Little Dog
24. Planning in Agile Learning Design- Big Dog, Little Dog
25. Selection in Agile Learning Design- Big Dog, Little Dog
26. Iterations in Agile Learning Design- Big Dog, Little Dog
27. Agile Learning Design: Tools for Learners- Big Dog, Little Dog

Bonus Items Recommended by my Tweets

1. Agility through collaboration
2. Is ADDIE dead?
3. Agile Instructional Design

I'm still studying all of this to see whether I really buy that Agile methods will work.   Lots of my experience tells me that while we intended to be Agile, put something out and then update it.  It's the updating part that doesn't happen.  If Agile turns into rapid elearning, then we are back to Rapid eLearning Tools Debate.

One of our colleagues came to me with a particular challenge, and I'm not sure I have a good answer, nor do I know specifically how to go about finding an answer. I'm hoping that readers can weigh in on both aspects: (1) specific thoughts or suggestions on LMS products that might fit and (2) how do you get answers to questions like this?

Continuing Education Requirements

Requirement #1: The LMS needs the ability to apply multiple types of continuing education credits to a single course, have the user select multiple types of credits to obtain and print certificates with the appropriate wording for the desired credit(s).

Use Case: Becky Bonds is an RN with the responsibility for coding the plan of care in her office. She has acquired HCS-D credentials and must complete continuing education to maintain the certification as well as nursing continuing education for her RN license. The LMS offers courses with both nursing and HCS-D credits. Before completing the course she indicates that she wants to obtain both the nursing credits and the HCS-D credits available on the Assessing and Coding Wounds course. After completion she is notified that she has passed the test and has access to 1 hour of credit for each type. She then prints her certificates.

Requirement #2: The LMS needs the ability to enter expiration dates and approval codes into the credit records and assign owners to the record. The fields for the dates and codes must be printable on the certificate and the date must be able to trigger an expiration message to the credit owner.

Use Case: The Assessing and Coding Wounds course was approved for HSC-D credits on April 22, 2010 with an approval code of BMSC-LHC1234 and an expiration date of April 22, 2011. Jennifer is the credit owner for the HCS-D credit and receives a reminder 90 days prior to the expiration date to reapply for another year. She sends off the request to the BMSC and receives the approval for another year with the approval code of BMSC-LHC2345. A new credit is created for the new approval period and applied to the course when the period starts. The old credit is retained with previous completions.

Requirement #3: The LMS needs the ability to create customized, course specific evaluation/survey assessments that are required to obtain a completed status for the course.

Use Case: Evaluations are required for the ability to offer nursing continuing education through the American Nurses Credentialing Center (ANCC). Each course with CE nursing credits must have completed, summarizable evaluations for review by the ANCC.

Typical Gap Found

The biggest gap is in the number of credits most LMS products allow on a course. Most of the ones we’ve looked at allow for one credit per course. We need to be able to put multiple credits of varying values on each course. And each of those credits must be tied to an approval code and expiration date. When the credit expires (usually after 1 or 2 years) we need to be able to update the credit. The value usually stays the same, but the approval code changes. However, we need to retain the older credit so that people who took it while it was in force still have access to the approval code for certificates.

The value and approval code (and sometimes the date range for the validity) must be available to print on certificates. We like to be able to have the user print individual certificates based on their need. So they can either pick the certificate by discipline/CE board or it is automatically assigned based on something in their person record. Rather than having one certificate with multiple statements on it for however many credits the course has. Each board has a different statement they like you to put on the certificate.

The other issue centers around offering course materials to field facilitators for them to present locally. But, we have to approve the facilitator before they can access the materials by reviewing a biographical data form (something like a resume) and a conflict of interest signature. It’s basically a workflow where a person in the field requests permission to teach a topic, an admin has to review their credentials against the course requirements and either approve or deny their access. There is other stuff around it too, but most LMS’s have restricted approval processes that go all one way or another (manager approval OR admin approval), not one where I can choose the approval workflow on a course – by – course basis.

Solutions?

Any suggestions on specific LMS products that should be evaluated?

Does customization make sense?

Have you had a similar issue and found a way around it?

Getting Questions Answered

This is probably not the right venue to ask this kind of question, but I couldn't think of any other good way/place to get this question addressed.

In my LinkedIn Guide for Knowledge Workers, I point out several ways that you can search for experts who might help you. But I did a quick search for things like LMS and continuing education and didn't really come up with people who I thought would be able to help.

If you have this kind of question, how would you go about getting help?

Listening in the EFL / ESL classroom can be a pretty dull business. Usually it consists of students all listening to the same thing at the same time and doing the same tasks. There's nothing wrong with that, but if you feel the urge to get away from the course book and get your students listening to and interacting with some real native speakers from the safety of their computer then why not check out some of the people on Vyou.com ?

I've already written about how you can set up your own Vyou Q&A video booth, but it's also well worth looking round some of the people who are already there and seeing if there are any your students would be interested in, as a lot of the people there a quite young and some are quite interesting and quirky and Vyou offers your students the opportunity not only to listen to them and hear a range of accents, but also to ask them questions, though the answers might take a while to come.

It's very simple to use. You just go to : and there you can either search through some of the featured people or you can click on channels at the top and look through the more topic related people.

Each person has their own video channel and you can either type in questions below the video or you can click on the questions on the right of the video to listen to the answers to questions that have already been asked.

Here are a few people your students might find interesting.

This one is a British guy called Jonny and he claims he will write a song about any subject that readers suggest. There a quite a few there already: http://vyou.com/Spontaneoussongs
This one is Loren Rochelle for North America. She works in 'Social Video seeding' (Yes that seems to a job these days). She answers questions about a wide range of things from the personal to the trivial: http://vyou.com/lorenrochelle

It's also worth checking out the channels.

If you and your students are more interested in literature then there is an ask the author channel where writers answer questions about literature and their books: http://vyou.com/channels/simonandschuster
If your students are more interested in music, EMI also has a channel where you can submit questions to some of their recording artists: http://vyou.com/channels/emi

So how can you exploit this with EFL / ESL students?

• Show students some of the people and get them to think of questions they would like to ask. Then get them to submit the questions (try to get them to submit questions to a few different people) then in the next lesson they can see if they have any answers and share the information they got from the answers (Also good for lessons on reported speech).
• Ask students to choose one person each and give them 5 - 10 minutes to discover as much information as possible about that person. They can then discuss and share the information in class.
• Collect some of the questions that have been asked and get students to think of possible answers, then watch and compare to their own answers and see how much they have in common with each person. Then get students to find the person they are most like.
• Get students to watch two different people and then compare and contrast their character and interests.
• Get students to think of one or two good questions and submit them to a range of people. Then in the next lesson students can check the answers and decide who they think gave the best answer.

What I like about this Vyou

• These are real people that students can interact with.
• The use of the looped introduction videos gives a real sense of presence and this can be much more motivating and engaging for students.
• There's a real wealth of listening materials with various accents on a range of topics.
• The answers are quite short so they aren't too demanding on students concentration despite being 'ungraded' and authentic.
• Students can listen multiple times.
• I've looked at quite a few channels and there doesn't seem to be anything inappropriate or offensive.

What I'm not so sure about

• Some of the channels allow for anonymous submission of questions, so students might be tempted to ask something inappropriate (though they are unlikely to get an answer.)
• It is possible that your students might stumble across something they might find offensive or some bad language, but I haven't found anything like this yet.

Well I hope you try Vyou.com and that your students find it engaging, entertaining and useful.

Related links:

• Create a Video Q&A Booth
• So Ask Me a Question
• Create a Video Dictation Activity
• 20 WebCam Activities for EFL ESL Students
• Teach Yourself to Teach with Tech

Best

Nik Peachey

I just got off the phone with someone who has a fairly common need that I've heard before.  The needs are very similar to those in Rapid LMS and  LMS Solution for Simple Partner Compliance Training. 

In this case, they are looking to provide their content as eLearning and sell it to individuals and organizations.  Key aspects:

• Individual eCommerce - someone can go on and buy the course just for themselves
• Group eCommerce - someone can go on and buy a block of courses that can be taken by people in their organization
• Pricing will need to be variable
• Group reporting - the person who bought for the organization should be able to see who's taken, completed, etc.
• Users will self-select their role which will take them to the appropriate version of a SCORM course
• Test at the end, pass or retake
• Provides certificate for the individual that they can print

This all seems like pretty simple stuff right?

What system would you use?

Would you consider a marketplace solution for this?  Do any marketplaces provide the group eCommerce capabilities?  What are the tradeoffs of putting it up on a marketplace?

I'd like to hear your suggestions and it would definitely be helpful to the person trying to solve this problem.

Related posts:

• LMS Selection Process
• Low Cost LMS

This month's #LCBQ is the first with the Big Question Thought Leaders.  It's been fun working with them and has definitely added a new spark.  I'm hoping that others will join the effort.  We strongly believe the #LCBQ offers an opportunity to have something online that's like a sophisticated cocktail party.  Lots of discussion and debate around interesting questions for eLearning professionals.  We would welcome lots of discussion.

This month's LCBQ is What are your Predictions and Plans for 2011?

I've attacked this by looking at my past predictions, then looking at lots of predictions from other folks, and finally I get to my Top 10 eLearning Predictions for 2011

My Past eLearning Predictions

You can see some of my predictions from the past in:

Ten Predictions for eLearning 2008

1. eLearning 2.0 - Increasing Pressure
2. Virtual Classroom Tools - Meeting Tool + Second Life Lite
3. Authoring Tools - Captivate and Articulate Will Dominate
4. Less Authoring - More Web Pages
5. Mobile Learning - Continued Scattered Examples and Disappointment
6. Metrics-Driven Performance and Learning Interventions
7. LMS => More of What You Don't Want
8. Serious Games - Seriously Sorry, Not for You
9. Niche Online Discussions
10. Knowledge Worker Skills - Just Beginning in 2008, Big in 2009

12 eLearning Predictions for 2009

1. "Self-Directed Learning" Increases
2. eLearning 2.0 Grows - But Creating "eLearning 2.0 Strategy" Fails
   Corollary: if you have SharePoint installed, you will be using SharePoint a lot more this year.
3. Increase in Consumer/Education Social Learning Solutions will Increase Pressure for Social Learning Solutions in Corporate Learning
4. Quick Wins & Toolkits
5. Virtual Classroom Tipping Point
6. Greater Domination by Leading Tool Vendors
7. Niche Tools Emerge and Get Traction in Niches
8. More Wiki Pages - Same Authored Minutes - Less Classroom Minutes
9. Knowledge Worker Skills
10. Mobile Learning Niche Growth

Top 10 eLearning Predictions for 2010

1. Hacking Work
2. Convergence Ramps Up Big Time
3. More, Lower Cost Learning Solutions (Low-Cost Test and Quiz Tool Comparison, Low Cost LMS)
4. Social Learning Grows But Becomes More Specific
5. Lots of SharePoint
6. More Examples of Mashups and Add-ons to Extend Simple Self-Paced eLearning
7. Major Merger LMS + Talent Management Vendors
8. Turmoil in Learning Organizations
9. Open Content
10. Cloud Computing

Predictions and Trends from Others

Some predictions I've seen from other sources that I've selectively edited to make them short enough to easily consume.

Horizons Report 2011 (PDF)

Time-to-Adoption: One Year or Less

• Electronic Books
• Mobile

Time-to-Adoption: Two to Three Years

• Augmented Reality
• Game-Based Learning

Time-to-Adoption: Four to Five Years

• Gesture-Based Computing
• Learning Analytics

eLearn Magazine - Predictions for e-Learning in 2011

Lisa Gualtieri

• The Rise of Curation

Charles Jennings

• Working and Learning Merge

Roger Schank

• Death of 'You Will Need it Later'

Harold Jarche

• Networked Learning

Karl Kapp

• Dramatic Increase in Gamification

• Draconian Social Media Policies

• Killer Augmented Reality App Developed

Saul Carliner

• Informal Learning
• Apps for the iPad and Similar Tablets
• Trend toward shorter programs

Janet Clarey

• Personal videoconferencing, telepresence technologies, tablets, and integration with existing systems will drive innovation in Virtual Classroom Tools.

Elliott Masie

• Learners as designers.
• Learning apps.
• Video galore.

Rovy F. Branon

• Learning Management System App Stores

Bob Little

• Apps, Not Courses

Inge de Waard

• Augmented reality moves towards augmented learning with easy tools: Wikitude, Layar, ARToolKit...
• Situated learning (learning within context in a community of practice) grows thanks to augmented mobile reality.
• Virtual classrooms and smart-boards are used in a more student-centered way (not putting all the attention to one person up-front=bad).

Tony Bates - eLearning Outlook for 2011

1. Course Redesign

            We will see increasing efforts at redesigning courses to incorporate both online and face-to-face teaching

2. The Future is Mobile

3. Open Educational Resources Matures

4. More Multimedia

5. Learning Analytics

6. Shared Services between Institutions

Manish Gupta - e-Learning Predictions for 2011

1. Live Online Training to Grow in India
2. Birth of Motion Controlled Learning & Interactivity
3. Performance Support Tools to Gain Adoption
4. Outsourcing to Continue Growing 
5. Gaming to Gain Momentum 
6. LMS’s to Remain Primary Delivery Mechanism for e-Learning

Glenn Hansen's 2011 predictions - 2011 - the year of collaboration

Collaboration tools such as micro-blogging software (e.g. Twitter, Yammer), wikis, blogs, discussion groups, etc. open up exciting opportunities for people to access relevant information where and when they require it.

The availability of cost-effective resources to facilitate wide collaboration (including open source software that enables wikis, discussion groups, chat and even web conferencing) presents the chance for organizations to reconsider the effectiveness of the performance support being offered to their people.

Of course, you can’t look at learning in 2011 without mentioning mobile learning.

Jon Aleckson - eLearning predictions for 2011 and beyond

1. Just-in-time learning
2. Greater access to information
3. Peer coaching
4. Cloud training
5. Ability to reach those previously unreachable
6. Tools allowing for easier collaboration and interaction
7. Richer media experience (videos and simulations)
8. Content repositories & Learning Object distribution and searchability 
9. Movement away from static textbooks as primary resource
10. Customized learning spaces, i.e. personal learning environments (PLEs)
11. Customization of content presentation and access
12. eReaders and eBooks providing better and more interactive content (just in time)
13. Changing paradigm of "bounded courses" to unbounded courses where learning is a continuous process that can occur anywhere and at any time
14. Sharing resources and co-producing content to reduce cost
15. Informal learning, sharing own learning with others via internet (e.g. blogs, wiki)

Nick Morris - 10 eLearning Predictions for 2011

1. 2011 will finally see the end of Internet Explorer 6
2. The rise of mobile learning
3. The rise of the 'robot teacher'
4. Student adoption of Twitter
5. The return of 'distance learning'
6. Increased use of Twitter in teaching
7. Increased use of Facebook in teaching
8. The death of RSS
9. The rise of the eText Book
10. The launch of an 'email' killer
11. VLEs will go cloud

Predictions and Hopes for Elearning in 2011

Ellen Wagner, Executive Director, WCET

• Mobile learning in all of its rich and nuanced forms will finally become an obvious, self-evident solution for learning because we are finally focusing on meeting the needs of learners who are mobile.
• Analytics will be the buzzphrase of the year.

Some Mobile Learning Predictions for 2011

1. Mobile learning will get its own identity.
2. Investment in mobile learning will significantly increase.
3. Mobile learning sub-disciplines will begin to emerge.
4. Mobile learning development for tablets will become one of these sub-disciplines.
5. Flash will still have an impact (at least in the area of mobile learning).

10 Predictions for 2011: Trends that Will Reshape the Training Industry

1. Total spending for training services will increase by an estimated 7-9%.
2. Training department staffing will grow by a modest 2%.
3. Selective outsourcing continues to grow while comprehensive outsourcing will become less popular.
4. The role of the learning leader is shifting from being a program manager to a solution architect.
5. Learning technologies are becoming social, collaborative, and virtual.
6. Speed will become the new mantra for training.
7. Convergence of educational institutions to the supply chain of corporate training will change the supplier landscape.
8. Learning content will be transformed for easier consumption.
9. Success metrics for learning will be based on content access, views, involvement and downloads.
10. Learning leaders will be more focused on relevancy of information.

Learning Technology Trends To Watch In 2011

1. Growth of Social Learning
2. To LMS or Not
3. Pocket Video Technology
4. Mobile
5. iPad or Alt-Tablets
6. Virtual Worlds Rising Up
7. Augmented Reality
8. Blogs
9. eBooks
10. QR Codes

5 Trends to Watch 4 in 2011

1. Lite LMS
2. Extended Enterprise/Channel Product/Distributors Market
3. Marketplaces & Exchanges by LMS/Learning Portal Vendors
4. LMSs focusing more on the end user experience
5. HTML5 &  Rapid Content Authoring Tools

CLO Magazine - Five Trends in Learning Delivery 2011

1. Increased Fidelity of Experience
2. Kiosk Learning
3. Crowdsourcing for Learning Assignments
4. Data Mining
5. The LMS Adds Informal Learning

Top 5 things I hope not to hear in 2011

1. Death by PowerPoint
2. I’d like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn
3. Dear Twitter
4. Learning styles don’t exist
5. If Facebook were a country

Enterprise mLearning Predictions for 2011

1. mLearning Engagements Expand.
2. Device Diversity is the “New Normal”
3. Mobile Apps Become Essential to Enterprise mLearning
4. Pad/Tablet Use Explodes
5. Authoring Tools Will Evolve
6. Private Social Networks Win Over Public
7. Market Consolidations Will Occur
8. Here Come the Experts!
9. New Features and New Possibilities

My E-learning predictions and plans for 2011 #LCBQ

1. 2011 Moving from the LMS to the workplace
2. Form courses to nuggets and collaboration
3. Disclosure of content: capturing context

And still more:

• 2011 Predictions
• Reciprocity: The Word of 2011
• Nuts and Bolts: 2011 Resolutions by Jane Bozarth
• Learning Circuits eLearning Trends 2011
• Reflections on 2010 and Predictions for 2011
• eLearning & mLearning: It's All Happening--And Faster Than You Think
• 2011: Integration
• Predictions for e-Learning in 2011
• e-learning outlook for 2011

Looking at this another way, I went to eLearning Learning and looked at what were the keywords that arose based on eLearning Predictions 2011 and based on what were the keywords that were more active during the beginning of 2011 than in the past.  Here's what came up.

• iPad 
• Cornerstone OnDemand
• Plateau
• Saba 
• Augmented Reality 
• Cloud Computing 
• Analytics 
• Mobile Learning 
• GeoLearning 
• Performance Support 
• Outsource 
• Low Cost 
• iPhone 
• Learning Theory
• Creative Commons 
• Facebook 
• Portal 
• Learn.com 
• Leadership 
• eLearning Strategy 
• Knowledge Management 
• Voiceover 

Obviously, the Cornerstone OnDemand is because of the IPO.  Others are actually are fairly instructive about what the current trends are in eLearning.

My Predictions

So with all of that as a lead up.  Here are my top 10 eLearning predictions for 2011.

Prediction #1 => Growth of Working Smarter and Increase in the Schism Between Learning and Doing Organizations

What do you call the combination of informal learning, performance support, social learning, providing help directly at the point of need, providing tools, access to peers/experts and the other kinds of techniques that can be used to improve business results but that are not training?

Jay Cross talks about this in terms of Working Smarter:

I don’t talk much about training or learning these days.

The goal is achieving the outcomes you seek. How you get there is immaterial. Sometimes it’s easier to add smarts to the workflow (performance support) than to stuff things into people’s heads.

I have reframed how I help organizations get things done. It may or may not involve learning. I call it working smarter.

Jay has launched Working Smarter Daily that collects some of the best thinking on how people and organizations can work smarter.  Interestingly, it's Xyleme - an LCMS vendor that is sponsoring the site.  I find that interesting because clearly they see the need to capture and deliver information and support in new ways in organizations.

While I like Jay's approach, I'm not sure that specific term will be embraced.  At the same time, we are struggling to find a term to describe how to describe this broader set of approaches.   In trying to come up with next month's #LCBQ, we specifically wanted to be able to name this.

That said, I think it's clear in 2011 that there will be a growing schism between traditional training organizations that increasingly are marginalized and those that go after working smarter.  I think of this as the difference between those focused on learning and those focused on doing.

Prediction #2 => Mobile Tipping Point

You can see that my predictions for mobile were rather pessimistic in the past.  In 2008, I talked about how there would be "Continued Scattered Examples and Disappointment" In 2009,  I said we would see "Mobile Learning Niche Growth."  My belief is that mobile this year has reached a tipping point a bit like Virtual Classroom tools in 2009.  We have reached a time when there's a kind of ubiquity for access of content on new kinds of devices (cell phones, smartphones, tablets) and in places away from the home and office. 

The explosion in the world of mobile learning (mLearning) is fueled by the numbers, but also by the need to provide new kinds of learning and support that can be used at the point of need.  When everyone has a mobile device with web access, clearly there are opportunities to provide content in new ways.

We are seeing the beginning of lots of Mobile Learning tool offerings.  And I think there will be a wave of eLearning Startups that leverage mobile deliver as a differentiating factor.

Prediction #3 => Curation Hot in 2011

Lisa Gualtieri predicted 2011 as "The Rise of Curation."  There are many people, especially those who come from the world of publishing that are calling 2011 the Year of Curation.  If you've not been hearing this term a lot already, you soon will.

Why is Curation an "it" term in 2011?

The answer is simple: Information Overload provides inherent opportunity for curation.  A great diagram is in Information Overload Paradox:

The post talks about the issue of overload:

I can certainly consume more content than I could two decades ago, but no matter how much content is available, I can’t consume much more. And relative to the sheer volume of content available to me, I’m actually consuming a smaller percentage every day.

And talks to where they perceive to be the real opportunity:

The real opportunity here, in my opinion, is to create – and curate – the best content focused on one specific area frequently enough that you become the one brand that consumers look to for this information.

Publishers are clearly looking closely at this issue as the question is whether content creation provides as much value or is curation the real value creation.  I've argued that many training organizations and eLearning companies look and act like publishers.  In the Business of Learning, I asked:

While training as a publisher of courses and courseware faces an increasingly challenging market, what other things can learning businesses successfully sell to internal or external customers?

In a world where content creation is devalued, but where helping employees handle information overload is highly valued, there's a clear opportunity to look towards filtering and curation as a means to provide high value. 

What does this mean for a learning (or more correctly a doing organization)?  It means that you will take on responsibility for getting into the flow and finding of relevant information to help people do their work.

Prediction #4 => Text-to-Speech Growth Accelerates

Watson (the IBM machine that beat humans on Jeopardy) shows us how intelligent machines can help answer certain kinds of questions.  One thing that I've not heard discussed as much is the voice recognition and text-to-speech of the application.   In the Fall of 2010, I did a series on Text-to-Speech in eLearning.  There were lots of folks who argued that human narrators produce better results.  And while that will remain true, the point is that there are lots of applications and eLearning scenarios where that simply won't make sense.  To achieve lower cost, faster time-to-market and to be able to support growing mobile access and specialized kinds of information access, I think we are going to see growth in the use of text-to-speech.

Prediction #5 => Book Publishers Moving into eLearning

I've really been struck over the past few months on the opportunity and need for traditional book publishers to move into new kinds of electronic publications.  In eLearning Startup Opportunities, I point to Chegg's acquisition of Cramster.  Chegg is roughly Netflix for textbooks.  Cramster provides interactive and social support to help students answer textbook questions.  The clear issue for Chegg is that textbooks will soon be delivered electronically.  The logistics aspects of the company becomes less important in that world.  But the opportunity is clear - create additional value on top of the text books and you will be a winner in the world of electronic text books.

In the Business of Learning, publishers clearly needed to think about how they might go after

• specialized tools and content that meet particular industry or audience needs
• games and simulations
• web 2.0 approaches that leverage distributed content creation, social aspects as part of learning, collaborative learning and editing.

Of course, a lot of traditional publishers will not be making this transition on their own.  Worse yet, there are many publisher who do not have the rights necessary on the content to be able to make this transition.  However, there's so much opportunity here.  I've been working on two different projects where books/publisher content was used as the basis of a startup where the content was used as the backdrop for tools.

Prediction #6 => Content Creation - Rapid, Low-Cost are the Key in 2011

Many of the trends I've cited Curation and Publishers Moving into eLearning talk to the need to look beyond traditional content creation.  Looking to move upstream where possible.  What if you are still in the content creation business?  Well, despite the predictions by lots of other people that is listed above, I don't see a lot of sexy new things around content creation such as gaming.  Instead, my belief is that the discussion will be much more around rapid, low-cost content creation.  Closely related will be outsourced, especially off-shore content creation.  Production of content into eLearning is becoming much more of a commodity.  This is especially true when the content is more about compliance than performance.

Prediction #7 => Video Takes Off

It's been amazing to see how the bandwidth in most organizations finally reaching a point where video can be pushed out as part of our solutions.  It's also amazing how simple it is to capture video.  And video is close to being possible out to mobile devices.  Put this all together and video is going to really take off as part of learning solutions.

Corollary => Open Source Video Technologies

I'm dealing right now with delivery of video on mobile devices.  It's a mess.  There's clear need and opportunity.  I expect to see a lot of activity around this especially with things like Kaltura Raises $20M for Open-Source Video Technologies.  It's early for this technology, but I'm paying close attention to solutions that will enable video to be delivered much more like images.

Prediction #8 => Lots of Discussion around Enterprise Gamification

As you know, I'm big time into using social signals as a means of social filtering.  My belief is that this crowdsources aspects of curation.  With the growth of Facebook Like buttons, there are all sorts of new social signals going on.  This has real value for the enterprise.  But what's been interesting to see building over 2010 and early 2011, is the growing discussion around social games that relate to the enterprise.

• CubeDuel is Hot or Not for coworkers - basically making a game out of rating coworkers.  Combine this with LinkedIn Skills and you have an interesting way to rate everyone's skills.
• Badgeville allows you to add a social game layer onto your content.
• Rypple gives users the ability to create custom badges and, more importantly, define what they mean.

My belief is that there are ways to allow interaction with content to provide greater engagement through gamification, social discovery, improved personalization.  I'm sure we'll hear a lot about it this year, but I'm not quite sure that it's going to be reality for most organizations.  Still I'm going to be reading closely things like: Enterprise 2.0: social scorecard and social media karma.

I don't think this is going to have much impact in 2011, but it's a discussion that we are going to have.  And I'm not quite sure if gamification is what I want to talk about or more about automated curation and the socialization and personalization of content.

Prediction #9 => Learning Analytics Hype

Learning analytics, data mining came up several times in other predictions.  There is definitely a lot of interesting information that we have around our content, talent, learning, etc.  However, unless you can turn that into actionable information especially the kind of Data Driven learning solutions, then I'm not sure I buy that this will be much more than a neat thing to talk about and for vendors to sell.  My belief is that we'll hear a lot about it in 2011, but that by mid 2012 the focus will change to more actionable information related to doing.

Prediction #10 => Augmented Reality not a Reality for Most

Augmented Reality came up in several of the predictions I cited above.  Last year I posted: Augmented Reality for Learning that contains lots of great infromation about this topic and why many of us believe it is going to have big time long-term impact.  The automotive example where mechanics have a heads-up display with real-time support is in the context of the work is amazing. 

Unfortunately, the reality is that most eLearning Professionals won't see any impact for several years.  Actually, the Horizon Report putting it at 2 to 3 years is probably optimistic at best.  Much like games for learning - I believe in the impact, but the amount of discussion is far greater than the reality of use.